The Economist asks:
What percentage of the vote will the Workers' Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, or PT) candidate win in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Started
Nov 12, 2025 09:00AM UTC
Closing Oct 04, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Closing Oct 04, 2026 07:01AM UTC
In October 2025, the now-80-year-old incumbent Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) of the Workers' Party said that he will run for re-election in 2026, though health problems are a factor (AP, BBC, France 24). Brazil's next presidential election is scheduled for 2026 with the first round of voting to take place on 4 October 2026 (Constitution of Brazil, see Article 28).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 32.0% | 8.00% | -1.00% | 0% |
| At least 32.0%, but less than 38.0% | 25.00% | +1.00% | +1.00% |
| At least 38.0%, but less than 44.0% | 32.00% | 0% | -2.00% |
| At least 44.0%, but less than 50.0% | 19.00% | 0% | +1.00% |
| 50.0% or more | 16.00% | 0% | 0% |