The Economist asks:
What will be the effective US tariff rate for all imports for consumption in the second quarter of 2026?
Closing Jul 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC
President Trump's major shifts in US tariff policies have roiled international trade as deals with various trading partners and threats of punitive tariff rates mark a changing landscape, while the US Supreme Court considers the legality of the authority used to impose many of the import charges (CNBC, ABC News, Yahoo [Reuters]). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2026 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau's USA Trade Online (USA Trade, free registration required). After logging in, click "Imports" next to "Harmonized System (HS) District-level Data." From here, you will add parameters under "Report contents" on the left side of the page. 1) Click "Measures," then find and select both "Customs Value (Cons) ($US)" and "Calculated Duty ($US)." 2) Leave "Commodity" unrevised, as it defaults to "All Commodities." 3) Leave "Country" unrevised, as it defaults to "World Total." 4) Click "Time," and select the periods for which you want data. Months must be individually selected for a year. After those entries, click "Report" in "USA Trade Home --> Data Source Selection --> Report Contents --> Report" near the top of the screen. Export options are available by clicking the icon of the green arrow pointing down. To calculate the effective tariff rate for the time period, divide the total "Calculated Duty ($US)" value by the total "Customs Value (Cons) ($US)" value. As of the launch of this question, the effective tariff rate for 2024 was reported to be 2.343%, down from 2.352% in 2023. The data as reported will control, irrespective of judicial actions pertaining to the use of the IEEPA or other legislation to impose tariffs.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 4.00% | 2.00% | -0.28% | 0% |
| At least 4.00%, but less than 8.00% | 11.00% | -0.12% | 0% |
| At least 8.00%, but less than 12.00% | 30.00% | -0.14% | +2.00% |
| At least 12.00%, but less than 16.00% | 36.00% | +0.66% | +1.00% |
| At least 16.00%, but less than 20.00% | 17.00% | -0.28% | -3.00% |
| 20.00% or more | 4.00% | +0.16% | 0% |