The Economist asks:
Will the Fidesz party list win the most seats in Hungary's 2026 parliamentary elections?
Closing May 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Led by Viktor Orban, a coalition of Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP, which has been on a joint list with Fidesz in previous elections) has held either a two-thirds supermajority or a majority of seats in the National Assembly since 2010 (Britannica - Fidesz, NPR, Yahoo [Reuters]). The Respect and Freedom Party (Tisztelet és Szabadság Párt, or "Tisza") led by Péter Magyar is challenging Fidesz's grip on Hungarian politics (Politico, MSN [Wall Street Journal]). The next parliamentary election is expected in April 2026 (Balkan Insight). When the election date is set, the closing date will be adjusted accordingly. In the event of a tie for seats, the party that received the most votes will be considered to have won more seats. If there is ambiguity in the result, the outcome will be determined based on the results as certified by the National Election Commission after all appeals up to the Curia (Supreme Court) and Constitutional Court have been exhausted (Hungary National Election Commission). If elections are postponed or annulled and rescheduled to a date after 30 September 2026, the question will close "Parliamentary elections in Hungary will not be completed before 1 October 2026." A "majority" is more than 50% of seats. A "plurality" is more seats than any other party/electoral coalition, but less than a majority.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, a majority | 25.00% | -1.00% | -1.00% |
| Yes, a plurality | 29.00% | -1.00% | +1.00% |
| No | 42.00% | +2.00% | 0% |
| Parliamentary elections in Hungary will not be completed before 1 October 2026 | 4.00% | 0% | 0% |