The Economist asks:

Will SpaceX successfully complete an in-orbit fuel transfer between two Starship spacecraft before 1 October 2026?

Started Nov 12, 2025 09:00AM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC

As part of a long-term strategy for future missions to the Moon and Mars, SpaceX is planning to attempt an in-orbit fuel transfer between two of its Starship spacecraft (Interesting Engineering, Space Policy Online, Astronomy.com). The question will close upon the successful completion of an in-orbit fuel transfer. Whether the Starship spacecraft successfully reenter the atmosphere is immaterial. The transfer must include both methane and oxygen to count, unless SpaceX changes the fuel used to propel Starship.

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NOTE 12 November 2025: Any in-orbit fuel transfer between two Starship spacecraft will count so long as the transfer is completed.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 36.04% -0.51% +1.64%
No 63.96% +0.51% -1.64%

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