What will be the spread between the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages and the US 10-year Treasury yield as of 27 August 2026?
Started
Nov 14, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 27, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Closing Aug 27, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
While the Fed has been cutting interest rates, those cuts do not automatically translate into a drop in mortgage rates, and the spread between 10-year Treasury yields and mortgage rates has remained above the average from before the COVID-19 pandemic (Ameris Bank, Brookings Institution). The question will be suspended on 26 August 2026 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). On 28 August 2025, the spread was 2.34%.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 1.25% | 0.60% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 1.25%, but less than 1.50% | 10.70% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 1.50%, but less than 1.75% | 2.30% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 1.75%, but less than 2.00% | 15.20% | 0% | -1.50% |
| At least 2.00%, but less than 2.25% | 47.80% | 0% | +0.30% |
| At least 2.25%, but less than 2.50% | 17.10% | 0% | +1.20% |
| At least 2.50%, but less than 2.75% | 4.50% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 2.75%, but less than 3.00% | 0.60% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 3.00%, but less than 3.25% | 0.60% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.25% or more | 0.60% | 0% | 0% |