Will the State of New York's Responsible AI Safety and Education (RAISE) Act become law before 7 February 2026?

Started Nov 28, 2025 04:30PM UTC
Closed Dec 19, 2025 11:00PM UTC

As the Trump administration is reportedly looking at options to see state and local regulation on the development of artificial intelligence (AI) preempted, New York State may create a substantial regulatory regimen if the RAISE Act becomes law (CNBC, Hunton Andrews Kurth). While the RAISE Act was passed by both chambers of the New York legislature in June 2025, as of launch, it had not been presented to the governor (NY Senate - S6953B, News10). Presentment to the governor starts the clock on deadlines for the governor to act (City & State New York, Reinvent Albany). The question will close upon the bill being signed, vetoed, pocket vetoed, and/or otherwise returned to the legislature without becoming law. Whether the legislation is reenacted or a veto thereof is overridden is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 19 December 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 73%
No 27%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 13
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 110
Number of Forecasts 17
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 255
Accuracy
There are not enough forecasters in this question to generate an accuracy profile.

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.518052
3.
-0.329362
4.
-0.27901
5.
-0.275671

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username