The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in the world (Investopedia - S&P 500). And while it includes stocks from all economic sectors, the artificial intelligence race has led to heavy concentration in the tech sector (Yahoo [Stacker], Economic Times, Yahoo). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). The threshold will be reached once the closing value of the S&P 500 is lower by 20% or more from its all-time closing high as of that date (the all-time closing high may be reached after the launch of this question).

This question is a companion with #4880 (down 30%) and #4881 (down 40%).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.