msumi asks:

Before 1 September 2026, will lethal confrontations between the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and the Eritrean Defence Forces (EDF) result in 25 or more fatalities among the forces?

Started Dec 19, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC

Fears of fighting between Ethiopia and Eritrea have grown as rhetoric between the two countries in the Horn of Africa has become hostile (Crisis Group, Anadolu Agency, AOL [BBC], Chatham House). The outcome will be determined using credible, open-source reporting, including—but not limited to—reporting from ACLED, and the fatalities must occur among actual ENDF and/or EDF forces to count (ACLED). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in a fatality (total, not each) for forces of either side, and the 25 or more fatalities must occur within 168 hours (one week) of each other to count. The confrontation and fatalities must occur during the question's open period to count. Militias not formally under the command of the ENDF or EDF will not be considered forces of either.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes 60.00% +10.00%
No 40.00% -10.00%

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