The Economist asks:
How many new electric vehicles (EVs) will be sold in the US in the first half of 2026, according to Kelley Blue Book?
Closing Jul 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC
EV sales in the US are expected to face headwinds as federal subsidies ended in 2025 (Economist, CNBC, Cox Automotive). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2026 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Kelley Blue Book (KBB), a subsidiary of Cox Automotive, expected in July 2026. In the first half of 2025, KBB reported that 607,082 EVs were sold in the US (KBB - Q2 2025 Electric Vehicle Sales Report, see "Total (Estimates)" on page 2). The "ELECTRIC VEHICLE (BRAND)" table will be used for resolution.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 300,000 | 4.00% | +2.00% |
| At least 300,000, but fewer than 375,000 | 11.00% | +1.00% |
| At least 375,000, but fewer than 450,000 | 12.00% | -2.00% |
| At least 450,000, but fewer than 525,000 | 20.00% | -5.00% |
| At least 525,000, but fewer than 600,000 | 26.00% | 0% |
| At least 600,000, but fewer than 675,000 | 13.00% | 0% |
| At least 675,000, but fewer than 750,000 | 9.00% | +1.00% |
| 750,000 or more | 5.00% | +3.00% |