The Economist asks:
What will be the average year-over-year change in retail sales in China for the second quarter months of 2026?
Closing Jul 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC
China's government has attempted to stimulate domestic consumption with "trade-in" programs for consumer goods, though its impact on overall retail spending in 2026 remains to be seen (Economist, Government of China, Center for Strategic & International Studies). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2026 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Trading Economics once data for June 2026 are first reported (Trading Economics). As of the launch of this question, the average year-over-year change in retail sales for the second quarter months of 2025 was 5.433% [(5.1+6.4+4.8)/3], up from 2.667% for the second quarter of 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 0.0% | 3.00% | +1.00% |
| At least 0.0%, but less than 1.5% | 16.00% | +4.00% |
| At least 1.5%, but less than 3.0% | 26.00% | +1.00% |
| At least 3.0%, but less than 4.5% | 27.00% | -1.00% |
| At least 4.5%, but less than 6.0% | 22.00% | -4.00% |
| At least 6.0%, but less than 7.5% | 4.00% | -1.00% |
| 7.5% or more | 2.00% | 0% |