What will be the net change in global coal-fired power capacity (Gigawatts, or GW) in 2026 as compared to 2025, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM)?
Closing Jan 01, 2027 08:01AM UTC
While renewable energy generation has grown substantially around the world, coal remains a major source of power (Ember, NPR). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2026 and the outcome determined using data as reported by GEM once data for all of 2026 are first reported (GEM). On the dashboard page, change "Select a Country/Area or Region" to "Global," see the "How much coal capacity has been added and retired?" chart, and hover your cursor over the black line to reveal "Net change" data). In the event of ambiguity due to rounding on the chart, downloaded data will be used for resolution. As of the launch of this question, the net change for the world in 2025 as compared to 2024 was an increase of 74.15 GW.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| An increase of less than 20 GW or a decrease | 18.00% | -4.00% |
| An increase of at least 20 GW, but less than 40 GW | 21.00% | +16.00% |
| An increase of at least 40 GW, but less than 60 GW | 16.00% | -3.00% |
| An increase of at least 60 GW, but less than 80 GW | 24.00% | -5.00% |
| An increase of at least 80 GW, but less than 100 GW | 15.00% | -3.00% |
| An increase of at least 100 GW, but less than 120 GW | 6.00% | -1.00% |
| An increase of 120 GW or more | 0% | 0% |