HFC asks
Will ACLED record any riot/protest events in Mozambique in October 2017?
Started
Sep 13, 2017 04:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Challenges
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page (ACLED). The question will resolve as "yes" if ACLED records any event for which: 'COUNTRY' is the country of interest; 'EVENT_DATE' falls in the period of interest; and 'EVENT_TYPE' is 'Riots/Protests'. The question will be resolved when the relevant data is first released.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 69.00% | |
| No | 31.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 120 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 281 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |