HFC asks

Between 18 October and 28 December 2017, will any World War II Soviet monuments be taken down in Poland?

Started Oct 18, 2017 04:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 16, 2017 06:00PM UTC

Poland's president has approved amendments to a law that bans the promotion of communism, including World War II era memorials dedicated to Soviet troops (Radio Free Europe, The Star). Russia has threatened to retaliate against Poland if they remove any of these monuments (BBC, Reuters). If a World War II Soviet monument is taken down (e.g. BBC) the question will close as yes regardless of who takes it down. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Poland began dismantling of the Monument of Gratitude (Wyborcza.pl, Niezalezna). This question closed as “a) Yes,” with and end date of 16 November, 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 50.50%
No 49.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 144
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 334
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.38
3.
-0.366
4.
-0.366

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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