HFC asks

Before 21 November 2017, will Nnamdi Kanu, leader of Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), be found?

Started Nov 08, 2017 05:30PM UTC
Closed Nov 21, 2017 07:59AM UTC

Nnamdi Kanu is the leader of the IPOB separatist movement in Nigeria, but has not been seen in public since soldiers allegedly invaded his home in mid-September. A trial against him has been adjourned to allow more time to ascertain his whereabouts. Secessionist sentiment is on the rise in the southeastern part of the country. Kanu's condition when found will not affect the resolution of this question. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "b) No," with an end date of 21 November 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 91
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 150
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000715
2.
-0.000715
3.
-0.000715
4.
-0.000638
5.
-0.000331

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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