HFC asks
How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide between 1 December 2017 and 15 December 2017?
Started
Nov 29, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 16, 2017 04:59AM UTC
Closed Dec 16, 2017 04:59AM UTC
Challenges
This question will be resolved using the United States Geological Survey's Earthquake Catalog. The relevant data can be found by setting the Magnitude to a Custom Minimum equal to the magnitude of interest; setting the Date & Time to a Custom Start with the first day of interest and End to the last day of interest, leaving the UTC times to the default settings (00:00:00 & 23:59:59). Set Geographic Region to World, click Search beneath Output Options; note the number of earthquakes shown in the top left Search Results window.
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Resolution Notes
54
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/#%7B%22feed%22%3A%221513739754418%22%2C%22sort%22%3A%22newest%22%2C%22mapposition%22%3A%5B%5B-85%2C0%5D%2C%5B85%2C360%5D%5D%2C%22viewModes%22%3A%5B%22list%22%2C%22map%22%5D%2C%22autoUpdate%22%3Afalse%2C%22search%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A%221513739754418%22%2C%22name%22%3A%22Search%20Results%22%2C%22isSearch%22%3Atrue%2C%22params%22%3A%7B%22starttime%22%3A%222017-12-1%2000%3A00%3A00%22%2C%22endtime%22%3A%222017-12-15%2023%3A59%3A59%22%2C%22minmagnitude%22%3A5%2C%22orderby%22%3A%22time%22%7D%7D%7D
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 57 | 99% | |
| Between 57 and 64, inclusive | 1% | |
| More than 64 but less than 71 | 0% | |
| Between 71 and 78, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 78 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 69 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 305 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
