Started Sep 01, 2015 08:53PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 29, 2016 10:00PM UTC

Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

Plummeting oil prices are threatening the country's main source of revenue, and runaway inflation is making it difficult for Venezuela and its state-owned oil and gas company to service its foreign debt (Financial Times, Bloomberg 1, Bloomberg 2). Recommended Questions Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016? Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016? Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 280
Average for questions older than 6 months: 250
Number of Forecasts 1010
Average for questions older than 6 months: 678
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.036
2.
-0.033
4.
-0.032

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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