Started Dec 15, 2015 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 30, 2016 07:59AM UTC

Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?

This question was closed as "Yes" with an end date of 29 December 2016. The US imposed sanctions on Russia for malicious cyber activity on that date (The White House , The Treasury, Reuters). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


Although the US and China agreed to cooperate on cyber security issues during Xi's visit to Washington, President Obama's threats in the wake of the OPM data breach made it clear that the United States is committed to responding to cyber warfare and cyber espionage (Washington Post, NY Times). The OPM data breach also propelled cyber security to the top of Europe's agenda (EUROPA, EUobserver). Recommended Questions Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016? Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.00%
No 95.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 745
average for questions older than 6 months: 258
Number of Forecasts 3202
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.44
2.
-1.439
3.
-1.435
4.
-1.428
5.
-1.424

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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