Started Jan 20, 2016 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC

Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?

In November 2015, foreign governments participating in UN-backed talks agreed that Syria should hold new elections in the next two years (Reuters, NY Times). UN-backed elections could include the supervisory role stipulated in the Vienna communique (see Article 4 of the Security Council Resolution), other forms of active involvement in the elections (electoral assistance) or statements of support (e.g., Tanzania, Central African Republic, Myanmar). Recommend Question Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017? Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq? Syria did not hold UN-backed elections. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 927
average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 3601
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.016
2.
-0.016
3.
-0.016
4.
-0.016
5.
-0.015

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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