Started Apr 02, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 31, 2020 10:59PM UTC

The Mack Institute asks:

How many R2X vehicles will Nuro produce in 2020?

Nuro is producing a "second-generation" autonomous vehicle designed for package delivery instead of passenger travel. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently permitted Nuro “to produce up to 2,500 exempted R2X vehicles during any 12-month period of the exemption, or a maximum of 5,000 exempted vehicles over the full two-year exemption period” with the exemption being effective “from February 11, 2020 to February 10, 2022” (Nuro, Medium, Federal Register, Lexology). Media reporting states that the company “plans to only produce hundreds of cars in the first year” as the R2X vehicles are operated by Nuro in partnerships with grocery stores and other merchants (KTLA, Bisnow). This question will be suspended on 31 December 2020 and resolved in 2021 based on available data on R2X vehicle production for 2020. If production data is not available at this time, this question will resolve based on available data in 2021 on the number of R2X vehicles operated by Nuro in 2020.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

Name Probability
Less than 100 63%
Between 100 and 500, inclusive 36%
More than 500 1%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In