Started Jun 12, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Apr 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

iforbes asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?

Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea (CNN, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, Diplomat). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 April 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

486

Forecast
Count

1145

Crowd Brier Score

0.0082


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.009
3.
-0.009
4.
-0.009
5.
-0.009

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