Started Aug 28, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Apr 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?

As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed (European Council, European Parliament, European Commission). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements (Ernst & Young, European Commission). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Not before 1 April 2021" with a closing date of 1 April 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 October 2020 0%
Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020 0%
Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021 0%
Not before 1 April 2021 100%

No. of




Crowd Brier Score


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Tip: Mention someone by typing @username