Started Aug 28, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 28, 2021 07:01AM UTC

How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?

The Arab League consists of 22 member states (BBC, CNN, Arab League). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow (France24, Economist, Whitehouse.gov). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count (Guardian).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed "as of," so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021.

NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel.


The question closed "6 or more" with a closing date of 29 August 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
2 or fewer 0%
3 0%
4 0%
5 0%
6 or more 100%

No. of
Forecasters

132

Forecast
Count

617

Crowd Brier Score

0.063


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.128
2.
-0.122
4.
-0.095
5.
-0.095

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username