In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?
Closed Jun 17, 2021 02:00PM UTC
After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 (Kaiser Family Foundation, Law.cornell.edu (see §(3)(A)), The Hill). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals (Politico, Casetext). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 17 June 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.00% | |
| No | 97.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 86 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 391 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
