Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?
Closed May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California (Washington Post, CBS SF BayArea, California AB 2125, National Conference of State Legislatures). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, "voting system" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (U.S. Election Assistance Commission). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 May 2021.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | |
No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 188 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 400 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |