Question 38 of 68 in In the News 2021
Started Sep 25, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the UN Security Council or UN General Assembly vote on a resolution concerning outer space before 1 May 2021?

The UN has addressed issues regarding outer space at a variety of levels over the years (UN (Outer Space), UN Office for Outer Space Affairs, UN). China and others have different views on how to create new international law governing outer space (Diplomat, UN, Kyodo News).

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NOTE 7 October 2020: Procedural votes, such as adding an item to an agenda, would not on its own count. An actual resolution must be voted upon by the UN Security Council or UN General Assembly to count.

Name Probability
Yes, and China will vote for it 93%
Yes, and China will abstain or be absent from voting 0%
Yes, and China will vote against it 0%
No 7%

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