Started Sep 25, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 07, 2020 09:00PM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the UN Security Council or UN General Assembly vote on a resolution concerning outer space before 1 May 2021?

The UN has addressed issues regarding outer space at a variety of levels over the years (UN (Outer Space), UN Office for Outer Space Affairs, UN). China and others have different views on how to create new international law governing outer space (Diplomat, UN, Kyodo News).

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NOTE 7 October 2020: Procedural votes, such as adding an item to an agenda, would not on its own count. An actual resolution must be voted upon by the UN Security Council or UN General Assembly to count.


The question closed "Yes, and China will vote for it" with a closing date of 7 December 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and China will vote for it 93%
Yes, and China will abstain or be absent from voting 0%
Yes, and China will vote against it 1%
No 6%

No. of
Forecasters

83

Forecast
Count

276

Crowd Brier Score

0.3097


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.909
2.
-0.896
3.
-0.849
4.
-0.838
5.
-0.835

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