Foxes Ask:
What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?
Closed May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates (Morningstar, KATU). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May (FRED). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 May 2021.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Less than 1.0 million | 0% | |
Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive | 0% | |
More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million | 0% | |
Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive | 15% | |
More than 1.6 million | 85% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 117 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 651 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |