Started Oct 02, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Foxes Ask:

What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?

The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates (Morningstar, KATU). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May (FRED). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million.

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The question closed "Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 May 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 1.0 million 0%
Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive 0%
More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million 0%
Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive 15%
More than 1.6 million 85%

No. of
Forecasters

117

Forecast
Count

651

Crowd Brier Score

0.2718


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.285
2.
-0.249
3.
-0.247
4.
-0.23
5.
-0.229

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