Private Superforecasting Workshop and 
The Economist ask:
Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021?
Closed Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
In recent years, there has been speculation that China would declare an ADIZ over the South China Sea (Economist, National Interest, CNN). An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defense identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see: Defense.info, Economist, Inquirer.net.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 March 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | |
| No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 237 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 477 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
