Started Nov 09, 2020 11:00PM UTC   •   Closing Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop and The Economist ask:

Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021?

In recent years, there has been speculation that China would declare an ADIZ over the South China Sea (EconomistNational Interest, CNN). An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defense identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see: Defense.info, Economist, Inquirer.net.

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Name Probability
Yes 5%

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