Started Nov 13, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Balzac asks:

Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?

A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 (EIA 19 October 2020, EIA 30 June 2020). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" (EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA.

The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 June 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 97.50%
No 2.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 200
Average for questions older than 6 months: 250
Number of Forecasts 440
Average for questions older than 6 months: 677
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username