Started Nov 13, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Balzac asks:

Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?

A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 (EIA 19 October 2020, EIA 30 June 2020). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" (EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.

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NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 June 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

98%

Chance

Correct Answer

Yes

No. of
Forecasters

200

Forecast
Count

440

Crowd Brier Score

0.0041


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.003
3.
-0.003
5.
-0.003

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