Question 14 of 104 in In the News 2021
Started Jan 06, 2021 08:30PM UTC   •   Closing Mar 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high (AP, Bloomberg, BBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

Name Probability
Yes 2%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username