Good Judgment® Open | Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?

Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?

Started Sep 08, 2015 08:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 12, 2016 02:37PM UTC

Challenges

Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016) GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)

Tags

Foreign Policy Security and Conflict

The G7 countries include Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Recommended Questions Will Iran's President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016? Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016? Will China conduct bilateral military exercises with either Iran or Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2016?

Forecast
Activity

Possible Answer	Correct?	Final Crowd Forecast
Yes		85.00%
No		15.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters	649
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts	2110
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587

Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters	average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.

-0.426

2.

-0.425

3.

-0.424

4.

-0.423

5.

-0.421

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time