Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 11, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?

Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held (Reuters). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support (BBC, Reuters). The closing date for this question will not be extended.

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NOTE 27 May 2021: As the PSRM has created an election bloc with the smaller Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM), the Electoral Bloc of Communists and Socialists, the outcome will turn on the number of seats won by the Electoral Bloc of Communists and Socialists.


The question closed "Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most seats" with a closing date of 11 July 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats 5%
Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most 95%
No 0%

No. of
Forecasters

51

Forecast
Count

183

Crowd Brier Score

0.0322


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.157
2.
-0.155
4.
-0.148
5.
-0.147

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