Question 36 of 126 in In the News 2021
Started Jan 21, 2021 01:00AM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high (AP, Bloomberg, BBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.

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Name Probability
Yes 5%

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