Started Jan 22, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 16, 2021 12:00PM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?

The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden (NPR, CNBC, New Statesman). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


Versión en Español:

Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?

Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden (NPR, CNBC, New Statesman). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un "uno a uno" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.

Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes (FAQs) o envíenos un correo electrónico. Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique aquí.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 16 June 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Final Crowd Forecast

100%

Chance

Correct Answer

Yes

No. of
Forecasters

234

Forecast
Count

877

Crowd Brier Score

1.0866


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.223
2.
-1.223
3.
-1.214
4.
-1.204
5.
-1.185

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username