Started Feb 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?

Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 (US News, BBC, Time). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

211

Forecast
Count

611

Crowd Brier Score

0.0153


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.019
2.
-0.019
3.
-0.019
4.
-0.019
5.
-0.018

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