Luckbox Magazine asks:

Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?

Started Feb 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 (CNBC, SpaceNews). For the purposes of this question, a "space tourist flight" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude (BBC, SpaceNews).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 5 April 2021: A non-commercial suborbital flight with only Virgin Galactic personnel, including founders and employees, aboard the spacecraft would not count.

NOTE 5 May 2021: All passengers being referred to as members of a crew and participating in scientific research would not preclude a qualifying space flight from being a "space tourist flight."

NOTE 7 June 2021: All passengers being referred to as members of a crew would not preclude a qualifying space flight from being a 'space tourist flight,' nor would particular training requirements for, or completion by, passengers and/or crew.

NOTE 26 July 2021: Flights with members of the Virgin Galactic's Space Advisory Board, as Virgin personnel, would not count. Also, test flights would not count.


The question closed "Yes, only SpaceX" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, only SpaceX 100%
Yes, only Virgin Galactic 0%
Yes, both 0%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 174
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 652
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.826
2.
-0.821
3.
-0.82
4.
-0.795
5.
-0.787

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username