Luckbox Magazine asks:
Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 (CNBC, SpaceNews). For the purposes of this question, a "space tourist flight" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude (BBC, SpaceNews).
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NOTE 5 April 2021: A non-commercial suborbital flight with only Virgin Galactic personnel, including founders and employees, aboard the spacecraft would not count.
NOTE 5 May 2021: All passengers being referred to as members of a crew and participating in scientific research would not preclude a qualifying space flight from being a "space tourist flight."
NOTE 7 June 2021: All passengers being referred to as members of a crew would not preclude a qualifying space flight from being a 'space tourist flight,' nor would particular training requirements for, or completion by, passengers and/or crew.
NOTE 26 July 2021: Flights with members of the Virgin Galactic's Space Advisory Board, as Virgin personnel, would not count. Also, test flights would not count.
The question closed "Yes, only SpaceX" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes, only SpaceX | 100% | |
Yes, only Virgin Galactic | 0% | |
Yes, both | 0% | |
No | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 174 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 219 | |
Number of Forecasts | 652 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 613 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |