Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?
In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism (USA Today, DHS.gov). For the purposes of this question, an "act of domestic terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.