Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?

Started Feb 10, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism (USA Today, DHS.gov). For the purposes of this question, an "act of domestic terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 217
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 980
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.104
2.
-0.104
3.
-0.104
4.
-0.104
5.
-0.103

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username