Started Feb 16, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?

While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed (CNBC, Canadian Press, Coindesk, Investopedia).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 19 April 2021: The question is concerned only with a bitcoin ETF, not a broader crypto ETF that may include bitcoin.

NOTE 27 August 2021: The question is concerned with bitcoin, not bitcoin derivatives (e.g., futures).

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 112
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 424
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username