Started Feb 16, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?

While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed (CNBC, Canadian Press, Coindesk, Investopedia).

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NOTE 19 April 2021: The question is concerned only with a bitcoin ETF, not a broader crypto ETF that may include bitcoin.

NOTE 27 August 2021: The question is concerned with bitcoin, not bitcoin derivatives (e.g., futures).


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 112
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 424
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.8
2.
-0.778
3.
-0.751
4.
-0.749
5.
-0.746

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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