Started Feb 19, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?

The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult (Economist, Politico, Newsweek). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 (BLS - Release Schedule).

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The question closed "Less than 5.4%" with a closing date of 1 September 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 5.4% 55%
Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive 45%
More than 5.9% but less than 6.6% 0%
Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive 0%
More than 7.1% 0%

No. of
Forecasters

177

Forecast
Count

853

Crowd Brier Score

0.272


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.346
2.
-0.343
3.
-0.33
4.
-0.32
5.
-0.278

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