Started Feb 19, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?

The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult (Economist, Politico, Newsweek). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 (BLS - Release Schedule).

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Name Probability
Less than 5.4% 11%
Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive 86%
More than 5.9% but less than 6.6% 3%
Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive 0%
More than 7.1% 0%

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