CJH asks:
Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?
Closed Sep 15, 2021 03:00AM UTC
There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state (KCRA, NBC News). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot (Calmatters.org). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself.
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The question closed "Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled" with a closing date of 14 September 2021.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes, and Newsom will be recalled | 5% | |
Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled | 95% | |
No | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 94 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 508 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |