Started Feb 19, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 15, 2021 03:00AM UTC

CJH asks:

Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?

There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state (KCRA, NBC News). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ( The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself.

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The question closed "Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled" with a closing date of 14 September 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and Newsom will be recalled 5%
Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled 95%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 94
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 508
Average for questions older than 6 months: 682
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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