Question 32 of 131 in In the News 2021
Started Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?

The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI (SIPRI, see the "Data for all countries" spreadsheet under the "Excel file" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% ("Share of GDP sheet," cell BU99).

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NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022.

Name Probability
Yes 95%

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