Started Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?

The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI (SIPRI, see the "Data for all countries" spreadsheet under the "Excel file" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% ("Share of GDP sheet," cell BU99).

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NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 98.50%
No 1.50%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 164
average for questions older than 6 months: 258
Number of Forecasts 442
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.01
2.
-0.01
3.
-0.01
4.
-0.01
5.
-0.01

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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