Started Mar 19, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 22, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Terry-Smith and 024_andrew ask:

Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?

Several Democratic candidates have thrown their hats in the ring to be the next mayor of New York City (NBC New York, Ballotpedia). The primaries, which will be held on 22 June 2021, will be the first to use ranked-choice voting (Wall Street Journal, FiveThirtyEight).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Eric Adams" with a closing date of 22 June 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Eric Adams 61%
Scott Stringer 0%
Maya Wiley 8%
Andrew Yang 15%
Someone else 16%

No. of
Forecasters

150

Forecast
Count

728

Crowd Brier Score

0.9817


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.127
2.
-0.935
3.
-0.596
4.
-0.583
5.
-0.511

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username