Started Apr 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers?

Protests in Hong Kong that began in June 2019 have evolved into broader anti-government protests that are widening rifts between Hong Kong and China (Reuters, UPI, BBC, Council on Foreign Relations). The confrontation must take place in Hong Kong to count.        

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

135

Forecast
Count

308

Crowd Brier Score

0.002


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.003
3.
-0.003
4.
-0.003
5.
-0.003

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