The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers?

Started Apr 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Protests in Hong Kong that began in June 2019 have evolved into broader anti-government protests that are widening rifts between Hong Kong and China (Reuters, UPI, BBC, Council on Foreign Relations). The confrontation must take place in Hong Kong to count.        

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 135
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 308
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.003
3.
-0.003
4.
-0.003
5.
-0.003

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username