The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:
Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers?
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Protests in Hong Kong that began in June 2019 have evolved into broader anti-government protests that are widening rifts between Hong Kong and China (Reuters, UPI, BBC, Council on Foreign Relations). The confrontation must take place in Hong Kong to count.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | |
No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 135 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 308 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |