Started Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 26, 2021 07:01AM UTC

CJH asks:

Following the 2021 German Bundestag elections, which parties will be part of the new government?

With Chancellor Angela Merkel stepping down, her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and Germany in general face an uncertain political future (Euronews, Deutsche Welle). The election is scheduled to take place on 26 September 2021 (Bundeswahlleiter.de, Politico.eu). Members of other political parties joining a government would be immaterial. If, by 31 December 2021, no election is held or new elections are called with only a caretaker government put in place, the question will close as "No government will be formed before 31 December 2021." "The Green Party" means the Alliance '90/The Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen).

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NOTE 16 April 2021: We have added language to two of the bins to make them more clear.

NOTE 16 April 2021: For the purposes of this question, a "new government" is formed when the chancellor and the cabinet are sworn in.


The question closed "The Green Party but not the CDU" with a closing date of 8 December 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
The CDU but not the Green Party 9%
The Green Party but not the CDU 43%
Both the CDU and the Green Party 35%
Neither the CDU nor the Green Party 0%
No government will be formed before 31 December 2021 13%

No. of
Forecasters

124

Forecast
Count

775

Crowd Brier Score

1.07


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.962
2.
-0.887
3.
-0.879
4.
-0.698
5.
-0.694

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