Started Apr 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 31, 2021 06:00PM UTC

The Economist and Adam Grant ask:

Will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package before 1 September 2021?

As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed (EconomistEuropean Council, European Parliament, European Commission). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements (Ernst & Young, European Commission, Politico.eu). The question would resolve upon the last Member State notifying the EU that it has approved the decision (European Council).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 31 May 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Final Crowd Forecast

84%

Chance

Correct Answer

Yes

No. of
Forecasters

92

Forecast
Count

171

Crowd Brier Score

0.1112


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.129
3.
-0.126
4.
-0.126
5.
-0.126

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username