Started May 21, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Tim Harford asks:

What will be the annualized rate of housing starts for October 2021?

The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, faces an uncertain future due to lumber prices, labor market uncertainties, and fluctuating mortgage rates (CNBC, Fool, Housing Wire). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for October 2021, typically in November (FRED). For October 2020, housing starts totaled 1.514 million.

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The question closed "Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 November 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 1.4 million 2%
Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive 61%
More than 1.6 million but less than 1.8 million 37%
Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive 0%
More than 2.0 million 0%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 107
average for questions older than 6 months: 259
Number of Forecasts 384
average for questions older than 6 months: 688
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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