Tim Harford asks:
What will be the annualized rate of housing starts for October 2021?
The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, faces an uncertain future due to lumber prices, labor market uncertainties, and fluctuating mortgage rates (CNBC, Fool, Housing Wire). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for October 2021, typically in November (FRED). For October 2020, housing starts totaled 1.514 million.
The question closed "Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 November 2021.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Less than 1.4 million||2%|
|Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive||61%|
|More than 1.6 million but less than 1.8 million||37%|
|Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive||0%|
|More than 2.0 million||0%|
|Number of Forecasters||107|
|average for questions older than 6 months: 259|
|Number of Forecasts||384|
|average for questions older than 6 months: 688|
|Accuracy of participants|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||about average|