Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF?
Rising global food prices are a growing concern (Al Jazeera). The outcome will be determined using monthly IMF data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome determined when monthly IMF data for November 2021 are available, typically in December.
The question closed "Between $300.00/MT and $340.00/MT, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 December 2021.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Lower than $220.00/MT||0%|
|Between $220.00/MT and $260.00/MT, inclusive||0%|
|Higher than $260.00/MT but lower than $300.00/MT||22%|
|Between $300.00/MT and $340.00/MT, inclusive||78%|
|Higher than $340.00/MT||0%|
|Number of Forecasters||87|
|average for questions older than 6 months: 258|
|Number of Forecasts||568|
|average for questions older than 6 months: 686|
|Accuracy of participants|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||better than average|