Started Jun 25, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Tim Harford asks:

Will the US Truck Tonnage Index reach or exceed 120.0 before 1 January 2022?

The truck tonnage index measures gross tonnage of freight moved by motor carriers in the US (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as first reported by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). If the question is still open after November 2021 figures are reported, the question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined once figures are reported for December 2021, expected in January 2022. Revisions would be immaterial.

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NOTE 8 September 2021: The BTS link has been updated.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 93
Average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 306
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.025
2.
-0.025
3.
-0.025
4.
-0.025

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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