Started Jun 27, 2021 03:00AM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

How many RNA vaccines and therapeutics for humans will be FDA-approved as of 2031?

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Researchers see a great deal of potential in using ribonucleic acid (RNA) technologies in medicine (Nature, CNN). The outcome will be determined using FDA data available as of 31 December 2031. "Expanded access/compassionate use," "accelerated approval," and "emergency use" authorizations would not count (FDA - Expanded Access, FDA - Accelerated Approval, FDA - Emergency Use Authorization). Approvals of modified formulations of the same vaccine and/or therapeutic to treat different variants of the same disease would not count (e.g., Pfizer getting approval of a modified form of its vaccine to protect against a new variant of COVID-19).

This question will be suspended on 1 October 2021. While forecasts on this question may be evaluated in the years to come, they will not be scored.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Fewer than 10 6.00% +0.00%
Between 10 and 100, inclusive 65.00% +0.00%
More than 100 but fewer than 250 24.00% +0.00%
Between 250 and 500, inclusive 5.00% +0.00%
More than 500 0.00% +0.00%

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